The Future of Risk Analysis, Risk Engineering, and Risk Management:

Machine Learning, Uncertainty Analysis, and Digital Twins

engineer at a tech site
orange computer chip

One of Today’s Most Impactful Fields:
What is Engineering Risk Management?

We rely on a multitude of systems including manufacturing, healthcare, security and civil infrastructure for the proper functioning of society. All of these systems make up an interconnected network that is critical to the activities of everyday life. However, these essential systems are susceptible to unpredictability and risk, which must be accounted for in their planning and ongoing maintenance.


Vanderbilt University’s M.Eng. in Risk, Reliability and Resilience (RRR) is uniquely designed to develop expertise and leadership in making informed decisions that properly account for uncertainty and risk, in order to enhance quality, efficiency, safety, security and environmental protection.

One of Today's Most Impactful Fields:
What is Engineering Risk Management?

skyline with technology overlay
engineer in a white lab coat

Risk management in engineering sees beyond the immediate needs and analyzes and adjusts for different risks and uncertainties that may come. Engineers have assisted communities in reducing the harmful impact of adverse events, from natural disasters to technological hazards.

Core Components of Risk Management: Setting of Codes and Standards

The setting of engineering codes and standards, along with the design and construction of infrastructure, are enacted to prevent damage inflicted by hazards. Codes and standards have evolved through the years, continually being formed by laboratory research and past disasters. 

Always forward-thinking, risk and reliability engineers calculate for safety in the event of uncertainty and how to mitigate the damage once disaster strikes. Risk management engineering has improved societal well-being and even accounted for saved lives.

For example, in the event of a natural disaster, buildings previously were designed primarily concerning life safety issues,’ meaning, the main intent of the design was to ensure all occupants could safely evacuate. 

However, in the past 20 years, codes and standards have been updated to safeguard both life safety issues and the structural integrity of the building in the case of an unforeseen event. Furthermore, building regulations may now include considerations for accessibility for the disabled, historic preservation and decrease of economic loss during design-level events.

Examples of Real-World Applications of Risk Management Engineering

Progress in the realm of risk, reliability and resilience engineering has resulted in sophisticated solutions to help mitigate the damage and loss of life in many significant areas of society. A very small number of examples are below.

1. Earthquakes

Earthquakes have the capacity for widespread damage to infrastructure and significant loss of life. In the United States, The aftermath of the 1994 Northridge earthquake is reported to have cost the U.S. $20 billion in direct losses. 

The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHPD) was enacted in 1977 to improve techniques in predicting, forecasting, and reducing seismic vulnerabilities of facilities and systems. Risk and reliability engineers adopted appropriate seismic building codes for new structures to protect critical lifelines including electrical power, communication systems, gas and liquid fuel pipelines, transportation systems and water and sewage systems.

2. Man-Made Attacks

The attacks of September 11, 2001 changed the way structures were constructed regarding risk mitigation. Moving forward, engineers implemented regulations to protect the occupants, property, and functions of their facilities in the event of a manmade attack.

The Department of Justice outlined a risk assessment and management plan for engineers to implement in response to the terrorist attacks. The process includes the following six steps:

  1. Critical infrastructure and key asset inventory
  2. Criticality assessment
  3. Threat assessment
  4. Vulnerability assessment
  5. Risk calculation
  6. Countermeasure Identification
3. Equipment Failures/Malfunctions

Machinery that produces essential items and conducts functions necessary for daily life such as power plants, oil refineries, and factories are susceptible to risks such as deterioration, malfunction and natural disasters. 

Risk and reliability engineering accounts for these events and adjusts the planning and maintenance of equipment properly. Engineers often conduct what is called predictive maintenance. Predictive maintenance uses historical data and ongoing measurements of the equipment to predict future failures or malfunctions and corrects or adjusts them before their occurrence.

These types of proactive measures help companies prevent loss of business, protect employees and bystanders from injury, and ward off property damage.

4. Cyber Attacks

Risk management is essential to the protection of various technologies, specifically IT systems. In our ever-digitizing world, it is imperative that essential institutions, like the U.S. government, have a risk management plan in place to protect itself from cyber attacks. 

Risk management engineers determine the extent of a threat or risk associated with a given IT system and formulate a plan to mitigate these risks. It not only is important that these systems are protected from breach, but also that in the event of an adverse effect, they can achieve gains in mission capability. 

The National Institute of Standards and Technology’s Risk Management Guide for Information Technology Systems provides a risk assessment methodology for IT services that outlines nine essential steps.

Risk Assessment Activities

Input

Steps

Output

  • Hardware
  • Software
  • System interfaces
  • Data and information
  • People
  • System mission

Step 1

System Characterization

  • System boundary
  • System functions
  • System and data critically
  • System and data sensitivity
  • History of system attack
  • Data from intelligence agencies, NIPC, OIG, FedCIRC, mass media

Step 2

Threat Identification

Threat statement

  • Reports from prior risk assessments
  • Any audit comments
  • Security requirements
  • Security test results

Step 3

Vulnerability Identification

List of Potential Vulnerabilities

  • Current controls
  • Planned controls

Step 4

Control Analysis

List of Current Planned Controls

  • Threat-source motivation
  • Threat capacity
  • Nature of vulernability
  • Current controls

Step 5

Likelihood Determination

Likelihood rating

  • Mission impact analysis
  • Asset criticality assessment
  • Data criticality
  • Data sensitivity

Step 6

Impact Analysis

Impact rating

  • Likelihood of threat exploitation
  • Magnitude of impact
  • Adequacy of planned or current controls

Step 7

Risk Determination

Risks and associated risk levels

Step 8

Control Recommendations

Recommended controls

Step 9

Results Documentation

Risk assessment report

Risk Assessment Activities

Input

  • Hardware
  • Software
  • System interfaces
  • Data and information
  • People
  • System mission

Step 1

System Characterization

Output

  • System boundary
  • System functions
  • System and data critically
  • System and data sensitivity

Input

  • History of system attack
  • Data from intelligence agencies, NIPC, OIG, FedCIRC, mass media

Step 2

Threat Identification

Output

Threat statement

Input

  • Reports from prior risk assessments
  • Any audit comments
  • Security requirements
  • Security test results

Step 3

Vulnerability Identification

Output

List of Potential Vulnerabilities

Input

  • Current controls
  • Planned controls

Step 4

Control Analysis

Output

List of Current Planned Controls

Input

  • Threat-source motivation
  • Threat capacity
  • Nature of vulernability
  • Current controls

Step 5

Likelihood Determination

Output

Likelihood rating

Input

  • Mission impact analysis
  • Asset criticality assessment
  • Data criticality
  • Data sensitivity

Step 6

Impact Analysis

Output

Impact rating

Input

  • Likelihood of threat exploitation
  • Magnitude of impact
  • Adequacy of planned or current controls

Step 7

Risk Determination

Output

Risks and associated risk levels

Step 8

Control Recommendations

Output

Recommended controls

Step 9

Results Documentation

Output

Risk assessment report

Educating on the
Cutting-Edge of Risk, Reliability, and Resilience Technologies

The Vanderbilt School of Engineering’s risk, reliability, and resilience program integrates engineering’s newest technologies into its curriculum, equipping students with cutting-edge methodologies for creating impactful solutions. Below are some of these distinguishing technologies:

1. Machine Learning

Machine learning has come into focus as an effective means to implement risk management in recent years. Machine learning models study a dataset and use the knowledge gained to make predictions for other data points. Its algorithms have aided risk management engineering from predicting defects in reinforced concrete to predicting natural disasters. 

Machine learning in risk engineering has exciting potential, as it is breaking the mold for traditional risk assessment techniques, and configuring a way to perform real-time risk assessment. Currently, the majority of risk assessments are scheduled in specific time increments, i.e., every six months or once a year. These set assessment times often do not consider any dynamic changes that occur during the time frame between the next mandatory analysis.

2. Uncertainty Analysis

Uncertainty analysis is the process of estimating the uncertainty in a prediction, based on uncertainties in various quantities, models, and measurements. Through this estimation, engineers can make concrete contributions to decision-making through the analysis of uncertainties in the relevant variables. 

Uncertainty analysis can also provide the framework for a comprehensive examination of a project and identify potential sources of errors. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis can identify areas in need of improvement to optimize the project outcome.

3. Digital Twins

Digital twins are an astounding innovation that provides digital representations of real-world products. The digital representations demonstrate a product’s form, analyze its functions, simulate product behavior and can even test it before a prototype is built. Digital twins continuously evolve and improve in accuracy by incorporating the constant flow of data and regular user experience input. Furthermore, they can compare the sensor measurement of a physical quantity in real time against the prediction of the same quantity. 

Digital twins enable engineers to utilize virtual tools to manage assets and regularly improve performance. This allows professionals to detect anomalies and schedule inspections and repairs, anticipating problems and preventing their occurrence before they begin.

Career Opportunities in Reliability, Engineering and
Risk Management

engineer working with autocad software
3D engine

As technology and research in reliability and risk management expand, reliability engineer jobs are expected to steadily rise over the next decade by 6 percent.

The many foundational sectors of society require engineering expertise to properly account for unforeseen events.

Below are a few areas reliability engineers may work in:

Cybersecurity

Airport ground safety

Infrastructure

Military/Security

Manufacturing

Healthcare

Energy/Environment

Transportation

Engineer working on medical technology

 

Risk and reliability engineers can work in a multitude of fields—both private and public—and can also be employed in a variety of roles.

 

Below are eight examples of jobs
reliability engineers can hold:

1. 1. Risk and Reliability Engineer → Average salary: $123,333

Risk and reliability engineers assess the reliability of operations and work to reduce risks that could adversely affect operations. They regularly evaluate current processes, assess the reliability and maintainability of equipment and identify failures or issues.

2. 2. Risk Management Engineer → Average salary: $99,915

Risk management engineers identify, assess, and prioritize risks and apply resources to control the probability of adverse events occurring. All risks can never be fully mitigated, therefore risk management engineers follow a prioritization process in which the greatest risks with the greatest loss capacity are handled first.

3. 3. Property Field Risk Engineer → Average salary: $107,970

Property field risk engineers create and implement strategic service plans to reduce loss and improve operations. They manage the account risk portfolio and ensure that all underwriting requirements are being met.

4. 4. Reliability Engineer → Average salary: $99,281

Reliability engineers assess and identify potential issues and develop a plan to avoid or mitigate losses. Through in-depth analysis, reliability engineers help inform businesses on how to best maintain their assets by identifying potential hazards and preventing as many as possible.

5. 5. Site Risk Management Engineer → Average salary: $99,915

Site risk management engineers provide technical consulting while also overseeing and monitoring daily site operations. They often work closely in scheduling regular maintenance activities to mitigate risk, update configurations of risk management software and are on-site to respond to emergency risk management activities. 

6. 6. Quality Engineer → Average salary: $96,121

Quality engineers oversee and ensure that manufactured products meet high-quality standards. They implement quality processes, testing procedures and integrate systems ensuring that all products and processes comply with safety regulations and client requirements.

7. 7. Security Engineer → Average salary: $108,224

Security engineers build and maintain the systems used to protect computer systems and networks. Security engineers are responsible for ensuring these systems can withstand adverse events such as natural disasters. They analyze networks, certify they are running securely and proactively think about security issues that could arise in the future.

8. 8. Equipment Breakdown Risk Engineer → Average salary: $91,344

Equipment breakdown risk engineers perform regular inspections on equipment and report findings to the customer or business. They thoroughly inspect equipment to identify the source of risk, loss, and costs. Equipment breakdown risk engineers also conduct risk evaluations, evaluate exposures and controls, develop loss estimates, and then communicate their findings to the business.

Everything You Need
to Know About Vanderbilt University's Risk, Reliability and Resilience Engineering Master's Degree

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woman working on a motherboard

Vanderbilt University’s Master of Engineering (M.Eng.) degree in Risk, Reliability and Resilience (RRR) is designed to train experts in critical skills such as assessment and analysis to make informed decisions that account for uncertainty and risk in the foundational systems of society. The M.Eng. in Risk, Reliability and Resilience is a 12-month, 30-hour interdisciplinary program that equips graduates with real-world experience and applicable knowledge to set out on a path full of diverse career opportunities.

The flexible curriculum structure allows students to tailor their studies to their unique personal interests and goals.

The interdisciplinary approach offers a variety of courses and applications for their studies including:

→ Courses on foundations in risk, reliability and resilience engineering

→ Courses in project management, economics, law and public policy

→ Elective courses that can be selected from multiple disciplines

→Capstone projects

A typical course of study may entail:

  • RRR Foundations (12 hours)
  • RRR Applications (9 hours)
  • RRR Management, Law and Policy (6 hours)
  • Capstone Project (3 hours)

While not an exhaustive list, a few possible courses for the program include:

CE 6300 Probabilistic Methods in Engineering Design

CE 6305 Engineering Design Optimization

CE 6310 Uncertainty Quantification

CE 5330 Data Analytics for Engineers

CE 5340 Risk and Decision Analysis

CE 6380 Applied Machine Learning in Science and Engineering

EECE 5287 Engineering Reliability

ECE 6361 Random Processes

EECE 6362 Detection and Estimation Theory

BIOS 6341 Fundamentals of Probability

BIOS 6342 Contemporary Statistical Inference

BIOS 7323 Applied Survival Analysis

CE 5240 Infrastructure Systems Engineering

EECE 6304 Radiation Effects and Reliability of Microelectronics

The Vanderbilt Difference: What Sets the RRR Program Apart

Vanderbilt University School of Engineering is a renowned leader in risk, reliability and resilience research, education and outreach. Instructed by a world-class faculty and backed by decades of institutional research, this rigorous and highly-specialized program equips students with an immersive experience, sending experts into the field to develop meaningful innovations.

Students have the opportunity for mentorship among faculty and peers to further their academic experience beyond the classroom. Furthermore, with extensive relationships with government agencies, industry and foundations, students can apply their academic research to tangible experiences.

Industry Expert:
Why I Chose the
RRR Concentration
at Vanderbilt

engineers looking into the distance
technology waves

I was able to gain knowledge in a range of areas, and it opened my eyes to the different industries/career paths I can pursue.

The program is very unique and applicable to how industries are evolving in terms of technology and data. Since it is unique, it gives me a bit of a different perspective that I hope to utilize as a leader.

darby

– Darby Barnett, M.Eng. in Risk, Reliability, and Resilience, Class of 2022

The encouraging research atmosphere and the outstanding graduates from this program motivated me to strive to be a better researcher.

During my five years stay at Vanderbilt, I constantly learned from countless colleagues, professors, and friends. They all shared these features: keep challenging themselves to stay out of their comfort zone, and never-give-up character.

xiaoge zhang round

– Dr. Xiaoge Zhang, Ph.D. in Civil Eng. with a concentration in Risk, Reliability, and Resilience, Class of 2019

Risk Reliability and Resilience Program Admissions Requirements

Students seeking admission to the RRR program should have baccalaureate degrees in one of the following disciplines: engineering, mathematics, or the physical sciences.

An Overview of the Admission Requirements:

1. Online Application

2. Academic performance in previous degree program(s)

3. Resume or CV

4. Three letters of recommendation

5. Statement of Purpose

6. TOEFL Score (if applicable)

Transform Your Career with a Reliability Engineering Master's Program from Vanderbilt University

Earning your master of engineering in risk, reliability, and resilience will empower and embolden you to make impactful contributions to society’s most critical systems that will benefit the generations to come.

 

Take the first step in transforming your career with a master of engineering in risk, reliability, and resilience:

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